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Research Call

DAFM Reference


DAFM Award

DAFM National Call 2014 14/C/824 Teagasc, (UCD) €197,138

Project Title:

Forecast Model

Project Coordinator:

Dr. Niall Farrely

Project Abstract

The ForecastModel Project is aimed at improving the private sector timber production forecast. Recently there have been numerous advances in the capacity to forecast timber production that can be incorporated into future forecasts with the potential to increase accuracy. This project aims to incorporate these advances. Accuracy of forecasts will be increased by addressing components of the production forecasting chain. These include (a) information on the forest resource, (b) information on the intention of owners in terms of silvicultural regime, rotation length, thinning frequency and intensity, (c) forest growth models which can forecast future volumes in line with owners’ intentions and (d) a forecasting model which incorporates all of the required information and any underlying assumptions. Methods will be explored to examine how inventory and management data from future management plans can be utilised as inputs to the national forecasting system. The research will also provide further information on accessibility of private plantations, management intentions of private forest owners in order to derive a more robust management regime for forecasting. In the absence of management plan and growth data new research aims to develop methods for predicting productivity estimates for private plantations that can be used as inputs into yield models notably (i.e. Dynamic Yield Models and BFC yield Tables) using measures of forest site productivity and/or remote sensed data. Finally the research will evaluate the sensitivity of forecasts to different forecasting methods, the first using management plan data, and the second using predictive methods incorporating the static British Forestry Commission (BFC) yield models and the Dynamic yield models, this will allow for a robust assessment of the reliability of different methods to be evaluated and provide flexibility in forecasting methods depending on data quality. A cost/benefit analysis of the use of different methods for national forecasting will be conducted. The project will identify the best methodology to use forest management plan (FMP) and related data in the national forecast.

Final Report: