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Research Call

DAFM Reference


DAFM Award

DAFM National Call 2013 13/C/451 UCD €164,860

Project Title:

Evaluation and refinement of timber forecasting tools using national forest inventory

Project Coordinator:

Prof. Maarten Nieuwenhuis

Project Abstract

Accurate forecasts of the Irish timber supply are required to inform policy and management decisions relating to sustainable forest resource utilisation, assessments of product supply to the processing industry and to meet EU and international reporting requirements such as setting national carbon accounting projected reference levels. The National Forest Inventory (NFI) is a statistically produced database of the forest estate in Ireland. The second cycle of measurements in the NFI has recently been completed and together with the first set of measurements, growth increments and change in the forest estate may be obtained. Two forecasting systems, GROWFOR and CARBWARE, have both been developed using Coillte’s Permanent Sample Plot (PSP). Using the NFI and NATFOREX2 data, the two systems will be validated. The validation will highlight where the constituent models of the systems can be refined. The NFI data will allow for more accurate growth models, improved volume and assortment functions. There will be an investigation into the use of GROWFOR and CARBWARE models for mixed species and uneven-aged stands. Improvements to the single tree models would facilitate a more accurate assessment of timber assortment forecasts by capturing site to site variations in diameter distributions and stem taper. The comparison of the improved GROWFOR and CARBWARE models will result in recommendations on which models should be used for different stand types. However, no actual changes to the GROWFOR and CARBWARE systems will be made during the project; the project outcome will consist of recommendations for improvements and additions to the two systems and their constituent models.

Final Report:

Final Report (pdf 466Kb)